September 14, 2007

A specialist in Pac-10 football betting, Las Vegas sports handicapper Patrick Bartucci ranks the conference No. 1 in the nation.

It's not just for the Pac-10's pro-style offenses, or its speed and talent at the skill positions.

In recent years, and this season in particular, team defense has emerged as a dominant factor in the conference, Bartucci said.

Top-ranked Southern Cal has 10 starters back from last season's Rose Bowl-winning team, and UCLA has 10 returning defensive starters. UCLA's defense was a key reason for the over/under of just 46 points in last week's game against BYU, which the Bruins won 27-17.

"USC is a defensive team now," Bartucci said. "UCLA is suddenly a defensive team. When would you ever see an over/under of 46 in a UCLA-BYU game?"

In a reflection of his bullish stance on the conference, Bartucci likes the "under" in several Pac-10 games Saturday, including the marquee matchup between USC and Nebraska. Bettors can play "under" 51 points in Las Vegas sports books in the game.

Bartucci also likes the Trojans laying 10 points or fewer against the Cornhuskers. The point spread is currently 10 throughout Las Vegas, although Bartucci expects money from USC fans to drive the number to 11 by kickoff.

The storyline revolves around Nebraska quarterback Sam Keller, who faced USC twice while playing for Arizona State.

"A lot is being made about how Keller knows USC," said Bartucci, who's at patricksfreepress.com. "But I think the Trojans know a lot more about what to expect from Sam Keller."

Bartucci's betting on the game illustrates how a sports gambler's approach differs from that of a tout or a handicapper who sells his picks but wagers little or nothing himself.

In midsummer, Bartucci bet Nebraska plus 17 points against USC at a Las Vegas sports book that was offering college "games of the year" wagering. Figuring the point spread should be 14, Bartucci saw value in the underdog.

On Sunday, Bartucci played USC minus 8 1/2 points as soon as the line came out in Las Vegas, allowing for the possibility of winning both ways but maintaining a heavier position on the Trojans.

"They've had a week off, which gives (coach) Pete Carroll two weeks to prepare for a team from a conference that's a full step slower," Bartucci said.

Contest update

The invitational "Money Talks" football handicapping contest sponsored by Leroy's sports books begins today with two head-to-head matches.

In the opening pairing, former Las Vegas bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich faces online gaming writer/handicapper Stephen Nover at Fitzgeralds downtown. The contest airs at 2 p.m. on KENO 1460-AM.

In tonight's showdown at John Ascuaga's Nugget in Sparks, Las Vegas professional handicapper Erin Rynning meets Ray Boldway of Fresco, Texas. This segment airs at 7 p.m. on KSFN 1140-AM.

The contest features 32 entrants who put up $5,000 each to compete in the single-elimination, bracket-style tournament for a winner-take-all prize of $160,000. The final round is scheduled for Dec. 28.

In last year's "Money Talks" event, Rynning won the $80,000 top prize.

Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or at haney@lasvegassun.com.