Monday, December 7, 2005
Copyright © Las Vegas Sun

In their first encounter on Sept. 18, the Jaguars limited the Colts to their lowest offensive output of the season in a 10-3 loss at Indianapolis.

Sunday, Jacksonville will try again to hand the 12-0 Colts their first defeat -- and the Jaguars' ability to stop the visiting Colts' usually efficient offense will dictate the outcome, according to Las Vegas sports handicapper Mark Franco.

"The game is going to hinge on Jacksonville's defense," Franco said. "The Jaguars have played Indianapolis tough, holding them to 24 or fewer points in five straight games."

The Colts, making a bid to record the NFL's first undefeated season since the 1972 Miami Dolphins, are favored by 8 to 8 1/2 points Sunday, having been bet up from 7 1/2 earlier in the week.

Franco prefers taking the points with the Jaguars, who return home after winning three consecutive road games.

"I think they can cover getting more than a touchdown, and I give them a small chance of getting the outright upset," said Franco, who is online at francosports.com. "Jacksonville has covered the spread in back-to-back road games (against Cleveland and Arizona), which is very difficult to do."

In Las Vegas, the Mirage properties had the highest number in town, 8 1/2, Thursday. Offshore, officials with Pinnacle Sports reported taking four times as many bets on the Colts as the Jaguars, but said high-rolling professional bettors -- or "wise guys" -- preferred Jacksonville with the 7 1/2 points.

The Jaguars, who will again go with backup quarterback David Garrard as regular starter Byron Leftwich remains sidelined because of injury, can clinch a wild-card spot with a victory.

Franco, whose documented record at Vegasinsider.com includes a 7-0 showing last week, wasn't too worried about Leftwich's absence, pointing out that Garrard has performed well and even had a "spectacular" second half against the Browns.

A number of Las Vegas sports books -- including the Hilton, Palms, Wynn Las Vegas and all Leroy's locations -- have been offering a proposition on whether the Colts will finish the regular season undefeated. The latest price on that prop at Pinnacle is minus-164 (risk $1.64 to win $1) on the "No," the Colts will not go undefeated; and plus-146 on the "Yes," they will go undefeated. Similar lines can be found at the Las Vegas books.

In another big game Sunday, Franco recommends betting the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears, who have won eight in a row, plus-6 points against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

"After winning 22 of 25 over the last two years, the Steelers have now lost three straight -- and one of the main reasons is the breakdown of their running game," Franco said. "Pittsburgh is in a more desperate situation, but I feel the line is too high."

In response to Tuesday's column about the contestants' subpar records in the Stardust and Leroy's football invitationals, professional handicapper Tim Trushel made a valid point: There can be a critical difference between the original line the oddsmaker posts Sunday night and the betting line on the board Friday night, when the contests take place, he said.

"The marketplace has hammered those numbers into shape," said Trushel, a contestant in this year's Stardust event and whose radio show airs from 7 to 9 a.m. weekdays on KENO 1460-AM. "A lot of plays that were there earlier in the week are no longer there by Friday night."

The California bettor who went by the handle "Maj Ent" edged local gambler Fezzik in last week's two-man "playoff" to win the Leroy's College Challenge. The winner went 4-3 in the extra week and finished 60-31 to earn the top prize of $45,500. Fezzik went 3-4, finishing 59-32 to collect $9,100. The contest was open to the public and carried a $250 entry fee.