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Columnist Jeff Haney: Making sure you don't short yourself when betting football games on the money line.
Monday, October 10, 2005 •••
Sports book managers who run their operation aggressively pay close attention to football "money lines" -- the odds that a team in a particular matchup will win the game outright, regardless of the point spread. The more competitive pricing they offer, their reasoning goes, the more betting action they will draw -- and, theoretically, the more money they will win from gamblers over the course of a season. Football bettors should pay closer attention to money lines as well. "We price-shop to save five cents a gallon on gas and smart bettors are just as price-sensitive with sports betting," oddsmaker Simon Noble wrote in a recent edition of his newsletter, Pinnacle Pulse. Noble used as an example a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Cleveland Browns. At one book, the Packers were a minus-255 favorite on the money line, meaning bettors risked $2.55 for each $1 they were trying to win. The odds on the Browns were plus-205, meaning bettors won $2.05 for each $1 they risked. At another book, the Packers were minus-255 but the Browns were plus-235. The bookmaker's commission on that money line works out to 1.65 percent, as opposed to the first bookmaker's commission of 4.41 percent. Is that a bunch of mumbo-jumbo, or does it matter to football bettors? "It should matter, as a $100 bettor who placed a money line bet on the Browns to win would have won $235, or $30 more," by finding the stronger money line, Noble, of the offshore book Pinnacle Sports, pointed out. Too many gamblers bet into poor money lines for the same reason they play blackjack games with the inferior payout of 6-5 odds on blackjacks, rather than the traditional 3-2. When their bet wins, they're so pleased to be receiving some money that they don't consider the cash they're losing by not seeking out the best odds. In Las Vegas, some of the best odds on football money lines have consistenly been found this year at Wynn Las Vegas, the Las Vegas Hilton, the Golden Nugget and all Coast Casinos properties. Others worth checking out are the Palms, El Cortez and the Aladdin. Take Sunday's Washington Redskins-Denver Broncos game, for example. A typical money line around Las Vegas was minus-330 on the Broncos and plus-250 on the Redskins, a theoretical hold percentage (bookmaker's commission) of about 5 percent. Wynn Las Vegas had the game at minus-280/plus-240, a commission of only 3 percent. Coast had it minus-275/plus-235, a commission of a little more than 3 percent. The Nugget and Hilton each had minus-300/plus-250, a commission of 3.45 percent. At the other end of the spectrum, the game was minus-300/plus-220 (5.88 percent) at several properties, including Harrah's, the Rampart, the Stardust and the Venetian -- meaning other books were offering better prices on both the favorite and the underdog in the same game. As long as you're going to bet on sports, it makes sense to give yourself the best possible chance to win the most amount of money. Do not short yourself. Otherwise, you might as well go play 6-5 blackjack. * * * Money lines also come into play on multi-team parlays. (A parlay is a bet involving two or more teams in which all of the teams must win to be successful.) Handicapper Kevin O'Neill, in his 2004 book "Real World Sports Betting: How Real People Make Real Money in the Global Sports Marketplace," suggests devoting a very small amount of your bankroll to money line parlays. O'Neill discusses a five-team parlay in which he played three favorites laying the points and two underdogs on the money line. While it didn't win, it would have paid almost 80-1, according to O'Neill, "for something that wouldn't have been an earth-shattering coincidence." Finding the best money line in this style of betting is perhaps even more significant. * * * Tread carefully when betting games in which the point spread has already moved, offering a less favorable number than the opening line. Veteran bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, spokesman for Leroy's sports books, said blindly following public opinion can be devastating to a gambler's bankroll -- although he sees it happen week after week. The point spread on a particular game might open at 14, then get bet up to 15 or 15 1/2 -- yet people still bet the favorite against those "second- and third-generation numbers," Vaccaro said. "Those are people who really don't know what they're doing," Vaccaro said. For example, Boston College opened a 36-point favorite against Ball State in their Oct. 1 game, and the line drifted as high as 38 1/2. Any late BC bettors were left cold when the Eagles won 38-0. On Saturday the over/under on the Georgia-Tennessee game fluctuated from 40 to 41 1/2, and landed on 41 when Georgia won 27-14. Handicapper Andy Iskoe took a bad beat on that game in the Stardust Invitational because he had to play against the contest's line of under 40 (see results, this page). It's likely Iskoe and other under bettors won or tied their wager by insisting on finding a higher number. Jeff Haney is a Las Vegas Sun columnist. He can be reached at 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com. ----------- BREAKING IT DOWN Leroy's "Money Talks" football handicapping contest This invitational features 16 handicappers who each put up $2,500 to compete in a single-elimination tournament. Leroy's adds another $10,000 to the prize pool for a total of $50,000. The winner collects $40,000, with $10,000 going to the runner-up. Each week, two contestants make seven selections against the point spread from the weekend's college and pro football games, working with a mythical bankroll to rank their picks. The top pick is worth $770 to win $700, the second pick $660 to win $600, down to the seventh pick, $110 to win $100. The contestant who ends up with a higher mythical bankroll advances to the next round. This week's results: Lee Sterling, 1-5, -$2,430, 1 pending: LSU -16 (W $100); Purdue -5 (L $220); Oklahoma-Texas under 52 (L $330); Jaguars -3 (risk $440, late game); Hawaii +3 (L $550); UAB -20 (L $660); San Diego St. -9 (L $770). "Chicago Pete" Ventrella, 3-3, -$750, 1 pending: Redskins +7 (W $100); Cowboys +3 (W $200); Saints +3 (L $330); Bengals +3 (risk $440, late game); Bears +3 (L $550); Jets +3 (W $600); Ravens +1.5 (L $770). Ventrella advances. This week (8 p.m. Friday at the Riviera): Gary Greene vs. Nick Bogdanovich ----- The Stardust Invitational football handicapping contest The Stardust invitational features 16 handicappers competing in a single-elimination tournament for a top prize of $10,000. Each week, two contestants make seven selections against the point spread from the weekend's college and pro football games. The contestant with the better record advances to the next round. A "best bet" is used for a tiebreaker. Andy Iskoe, 4-3: Wisconsin-Northwestern over 59 (W); Air Force +1 (L); Georgia-Tennessee under 40 (L); Ohio State-Penn State under 41 1/2 (W); Louisville -13 (W); Cardinals +3 (L); Titans +3 (best bet, W). Dave Malinsky, 3-4: Wake Forest +21 1/2 (W); South Carolina -13 (W); Penn St. + 3 1/2 (W); Cal PK (L); Seahawks-Rams under 49 (L); Dolphins +3 (L); Oklahoma-Texas under 52 (best bet, L). Iskoe advances. This week (9 p.m. Friday at the Stardust): Steve Cofield vs. James Manos |
